VARIABILITY OF AIR TEMPERATURE IN THE REPUBLIC OF KARAKALPAKSTAN AND ITS IMPACT ON THE PRODUCTIVITY OF AGRICULTURAL CROPS
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Abstract
Climate change caused by the drying up of the Aral Sea has drastically altered the ecological system of the Republic of Karakalpakstan, making it the most vulnerable area to climate threats. In this study, the trends in air temperature change in Karakalpakstan between 1960 and 2025 were quantitatively assessed, and its direct impact on the physiological and economic productivity of strategic crops such as cotton and winter wheat was studied. Long-term meteorological data from the Uzhydromet service and the World Bank’s regional climate models have shown that the average annual temperature in Karakalpakstan is rising by 0.29°C every 10 years, which is almost twice the global average. The duration of abnormally hot days with summer temperatures ranging from +45°C to +48°C has increased by an average of 12-15 days over the past 30 years. Such intense thermal stress inhibits photosynthesis in crops, dramatically increases transpiration, and leads to the shedding of flowers and buds, reducing yield by an average of 20-35%. According to climate models, if measures are not taken, there is a risk of crop yields dropping to 25-63% by 2050.
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