O‘zbekistonda iqtisodiy o‘sish va issiqxona gazlari chiqindilarining ajralishi: dekarbonizatsiya ssenariylari va yashil multiplikatorlar
Decoupling economic growth from greenhouse gas emissions in Uzbekistan: decarbonization scenarios and green multipliers
Article Sidebar
Main Article Content
Abstract
The article addresses the assessment of the degree of decoupling between GDP and greenhouse gas emissions and of the multiplier effect of green investment in the context of rapid economic growth in Uzbekistan. On the basis of the latest official greenhouse gas inventory (2010–2022), the elasticity of emissions with respect to GDP is calculated and the emissions trajectory to 2035 is projected under BAU, moderate and accelerated decarbonization scenarios. A methodological framework is proposed for assessing the multiplier effects of green investment on output, value added, employment, imports and carbon on the basis of input-output tables. The results indicate relative decoupling, but absolute decoupling requires the carbon intensity of GDP to fall by more than 5.8 percent per year.
Article Details
Section
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
How to Cite
References
World Bank. Uzbekistan Country Climate and Development Report. – Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023. – URL: https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/uzbekistan/publication/ccdr
Ўзбекистон ялпи ички маҳсулоти 2025 йилда 7,7 фоизга ўсиб, 147 млрд доллардан ошди // Gazeta.uz. – 2026 йил 23 январь. – URL: https://www.gazeta.uz/uz/2026/01/23/yim-2025/
Uzbekistan’s GDP could reach $300 bln by 2030 – president // Interfax. – 2026, 31 August. – URL: https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/118907/
Ўзбекистон Республикаси Президентининг 2022 йил 2 декабрдаги ПҚ-436-сон қарори билан тасдиқланган «2030 йилгача “яшил” иқтисодиётга ўтиш ва “яшил” ўсишни таъминлаш дастури». – URL: https://lex.uz/en/docs/-6303230
President: Share of Renewable Energy in Uzbekistan to Reach 54% by 2030 // UzDaily.uz. – 2025, December. – URL: https://www.uzdaily.uz/en/president-share-of-renewable-energy-in-uzbekistan-to-reach-54-by-2030/
Uzbekistan doubles solar and wind power generation in 2025 // Renewables.az. – 2026, January. – URL: https://renewables.az/en/news/uzbekistan-doubles-solar-and-wind-power-generation-in-2025
Republic of Uzbekistan. Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0) under the Paris Agreement. – UNFCCC, 2025. – URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2025-11/Uzbekistan%20Third%20NDC.pdf
Leontief W. Input-Output Economics. – 2nd ed. – New York: Oxford University Press, 1986. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5_1072-1
Leontief W. Environmental Repercussions and the Economic Structure: An Input-Output Approach // The Review of Economics and Statistics. – 1970. – Vol. 52, No. 3. – P. 262–271. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1926294
Miller R.E., Blair P.D. Input-Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions. – 2nd ed. – Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511626982
Pearce D., Markandya A., Barbier E.B. Blueprint for a Green Economy. – London: Earthscan, 1989.
Grossman G.M., Krueger A.B. Economic Growth and the Environment // The Quarterly Journal of Economics. – 1995. – Vol. 110, No. 2. – P. 353–377. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2118443
UNEP. Towards a Green Economy: Pathways to Sustainable Development and Poverty Eradication. – Nairobi: UNEP, 2011.
OECD. Towards Green Growth. – Paris: OECD Publishing, 2011.
Stern N. The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review. – Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511817434
Batini N., Di Serio M., Fragetta M., Melina G., Waldron A. Building Back Better: How Big Are Green Spending Multipliers? // IMF Working Paper. – 2021. – No. 21/87. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513569512.001
Ўзбекистон Республикаси Экология, атроф-муҳитни муҳофаза қилиш ва иқлим ўзгариши вазирлиги ҳузуридаги Гидрометеорология хизмати агентлиги. Ўзбекистон Республикасининг Биринчи икки йиллик шаффофлик ҳисоботи: 1990–2022 йиллар учун иссиқхона газлари инвентаризацияси. – Тошкент, 2024. – 2.2-жадвал, 35-б.; 2.4-жадвал, 37-б.
Ўзбекистон Республикаси Миллий статистика қўмитаси. 2025 йил январь–июнь ойларида ялпи ички маҳсулот: пресс-релиз. – Тошкент, 2025. – URL: https://stat.uz/img/press-relizlar/analitika-vvp_zb-kirill_p46730.pdf
Uzbekistan’s GDP Exceeds $145bn in 2025, Eyes $240bn by 2030 // Caspianpost.com. – 2025, December. – URL: https://caspianpost.com/uzbekistan/uzbekistan-s-gdp-exceeds-145bn-in-2025-eyes-240bn-by-2030
Uzbekistan Targets Record Gold Production and Economic Growth // Caspianpost.com. – 2025, December. – URL: https://caspianpost.com/uzbekistan/uzbekistan-targets-record-gold-production-and-economic-growth
OECD. Financing Uzbekistan’s Green Transition: Capital Market Development and Opportunities for Green Bond Issuance. – Paris: OECD Publishing, 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1787/27d2489d-en
Uzbekistan debuts Green Sovereign Bonds on the London Stock Exchange // Daryo.uz. – 2023, 6 October. – URL: https://daryo.uz/en/2023/10/06/uzbekistan-debuts-green-sovereign-bonds-on-the-london-stock-exchange