Iqlim o‘zgarishlarining makroiqtisodiy barqarorlikka ta’sirini baholashning zamonaviy modellashtirish yondashuvlari

Modern modeling approaches to assessing the impact of climate change on macroeconomic stability

Article Sidebar

PDF (Uzbek)
Published: 2026-10-31
DOI: https://doi.org/10.66073/ReFocus-Conf/0910042
Keywords:
climate change, macroeconomic stability, DIGNAD, DGE, CGE, SFC, IAM, climate shock, adaptation investment

Main Article Content

Jamshid Axmatov
Center for Economic Research and Reforms under the Administration of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan

Abstract

The article analyzes modern modeling approaches used to assess the impact of climate change on macroeconomic stability. In particular, the theoretical features, advantages and limitations of Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) and of Dynamic General Equilibrium (DGE), Debt-Investment-Growth and Natural Disasters (DIGNAD), Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC) models are compared. Based on an analysis of international experience, the article substantiates the difficulty of fully capturing the effects of climate shocks on economic growth, sectors, public finance and the external sector within a single model. A methodological approach is proposed for using complementary models to assess the macroeconomic impact of climate risks in the context of Uzbekistan.

Article Details

Issue

2026: Proceedings of the International Scientific and Practical Conference “Contribution of Women Scientists of Uzbekistan to the Development of the Country” (Nukus, October 9–10, 2026)

Section

Articles
Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

How to Cite

Jamshid Axmatov. (2026). Modern modeling approaches to assessing the impact of climate change on macroeconomic stability. Partner Conferences of the International Scientific Journal Research Focus, 228-232. https://doi.org/10.66073/ReFocus-Conf/0910042

References

Mitra P., Raissi M., Versailles B. et al. Integrating Climate Change into Macroeconomic Analysis: A Review of Impact Channels, Data, Models, and Scenarios. IMF Working Paper No. 2025/170. International Monetary Fund, 2025. DOI: 10.5089/9798229021890.001. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229021890.001

World Bank. Uzbekistan Country Climate and Development Report. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023.

Nordhaus W. Projections and Uncertainties about Climate Change in an Era of Minimal Climate Policies. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2018, Vol. 10, No. 3, pp. 333–360. DOI: 10.1257/pol.20170046. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20170046

Marto R., Papageorgiou C., Klyuev V. Building Resilience to Natural Disasters: An Application to Small Developing States. IMF Working Paper No. 2017/223, 2017. DOI: 10.5089/9781484324745.001. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484324745.001

Aligishiev Z., Ruane C., Sultanov A. A User Manual for the DIGNAD Toolkit. IMF Technical Notes and Manuals No. 2023/003, 2023. DOI: 10.5089/9798400239502.005. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400239502.005

Fernández Corugedo E., Gonzalez A., Guerson A. The Macroeconomic Returns of Investment in Resilience to Natural Disasters under Climate Change: A DSGE Approach. IMF Working Paper No. 2023/138, 2023. DOI: 10.5089/9798400243004.001. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400243004.001

Hossain S.S., Cui Y., Huang D., Zhang X. The economic influence of climate change on Bangladesh agriculture: application of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, 2023, Vol. 15, No. 3, pp. 353–370. DOI: 10.1108/IJCCSM-10-2021-0123. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-10-2021-0123

Dafermos Y., Nikolaidi M., Galanis G. A stock-flow-fund ecological macroeconomic model. Ecological Economics, 2017, Vol. 131, pp. 191–207. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.08.013. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.08.013