Iqlim o‘zgarishlari va Amudaryoning quyi oqimidagi suv resurslarining o‘zgarishi: Qoraqalpog‘istondagi zamonaviy muammolar va moslashish yo‘nalishlari

Abstract

Using the Republic of Karakalpakstan as a case study, the article examines the current state of the water resources of the Lower Amu Darya under climate change. The relevance of the study stems from the region’s high natural and climatic vulnerability, the aridity of the territory, the dependence of economic activity on the Amu Darya flow, high evaporation, limited water resources and the consequences of the Aral ecological crisis. Based on an analysis of local, Karakalpakstan and foreign studies, the article considers the main factors determining the current transformation of water resources: changes in the temperature regime and atmospheric precipitation, changes in river flow, increased evaporation, anthropogenic regulation of water resources, irrigation load, the formation of collector-drainage flow and secondary salinization processes. Particular attention is paid to research by scientists of Uzbekistan and Karakalpakstan in hydrology, hydroecology and the rational use of water resources. It is established that climate change intensifies existing water management and environmental risks, yet the current state of water resources is shaped by the combined impact of natural and anthropogenic factors. The article substantiates the need to improve hydrometeorological and hydroecological monitoring, increase water use efficiency, develop water-saving technologies, use collector-drainage water rationally, apply GIS and mathematical modeling, and further develop integrated water resources management.